Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Prediction of species composition of plant communities in a rural landscape based on species traits

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Ecological Research

Abstract

The species composition of a community is a subset of the regional species pool, and predicting the species composition of a community from ecological traits of organisms is an important objective in ecology. If such a prediction can be made feasible, we could assess the risk of invasion of locally new species (alien species and genetically modified species) into natural communities. We developed and tested statistical models to predict a community’s species composition from ecological traits of the species pool. Various types of communities (forest, meadow, and weed communities) exist in a small area of traditional rural landscape in Japan, and have been maintained by human activities. These communities and the tracheophytes species pool in the 1-km2 research area were considered. We used logistic regression and decision-tree analysis to construct predictive models of community species composition based on plant traits, using the presence or absence of species in a community as the dependent variable and ecological traits as independent variables. Plant traits were grouped by cluster analysis, and the average in each trait group was used for model building to avoid multiple collinearity. Statistical prediction models were significant in all communities. About 60–75% of species composition could be predicted from the measured plant traits in forest communities, but 33–56% in the meadow and weed communities. Our results showed the possibility of predicting the species composition of plant communities from the ecological traits of the plant species together with the information on local species pool.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson MC (1964) Study of the woody light climate 1. The photographic computation of light conditions. J Ecol 52:27–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson RL, Beck DL (2007) Characterizing weed communities among various rotations in central South Dakota. Weed Technol 21:76–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Breiman L, Friedman JH, Olshen RA, Stone CJ (1984) Classification and regression trees. Wadsworth International Group, Belmont

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark JS, Silman M, Kern R, Macklin E, HilleRisLambers J (1999) Seed dispersal near and far: patterns across temperate and tropical forests. Ecology 80:1475–1494

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daehler CC, Denslow JS, Ansari S, Kuo H-C (2004) A risk-assessment system for screening out invasive pest plants from Hawaii and other Pacific islands. Conserv Biol 18:360–368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dansereau P (1951) Description and recording of vegetation upon a structural basis. Ecology 32:172–229

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diamond JM (1975) Assembly of species communities. In: Cody ML, Diamond JM (eds) Ecology and evolution of communities. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, pp 342–444

    Google Scholar 

  • Díaz S, Noy-Meir I, Cabido M (2001) Can grazing response of herbaceous plants be predicted from simple vegetative traits? J Appl Ecol 38:497–508

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fenster CB, Armbruster WS, Wilson P, Dudash MR, Thomson JD (2004) Pollination syndromes and floral specialization. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Systemat 35:375–403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garnier E, Cortez J, Billes G, Navas M-L, Roumet C, Debussche M, Laurent G, Blanchard A, Aubry D, Bellmann A, Neill C, Toussaint J-P (2004) Plant functional markers capture ecosystem properties during secondary succession. Ecology 85:2630–2637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gotelli NJ, Ellison AM (2004) A primer of ecological statistics. Sinauer Associates, MA

    Google Scholar 

  • Gross N, Suding KN, Lavorel S (2007) Leaf dry matter content and lateral spread predict response to land use change for six subalpine grassland species. J Veg Sci 18:289–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hill MO (1979) TWINSPAN-A FORTRAN program for arranging multivariate data in an ordered two-way table by classification of the individuals and attributes. Cornell University, Ithaca

    Google Scholar 

  • Jaccard P (1901) Distribution de la flore alpine dans le Bassin des Dranses et dans quelques régions voisines. Bull Soc Vaudoise Sci Nat 37:241–272

    Google Scholar 

  • Jolliffe IT (1982) A note on the use of principal components in regression. Appl Stat 31:300–303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahmen S, Poschlod P (2004) Plant functional trait responses to grassland succession over 25 years. J Veg Sci 15:21–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keddy PA (1992) Assembly and response rules: two goals for predictive community ecology. J Veg Sci 3:157–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klimešová J, Latzel V, de Bello F (2008) Plant functional traits in studies of vegetation changes in response to grazing and mowing: towards a use of more specific traits. Preslia 80:245–253

    Google Scholar 

  • Koike F (2001) Plant traits as predictors of woody species dominance in climax forest communities. J Veg Sci 12:327–336

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koike F (2010) Risk assessment of non-indigenous plants and advances in community ecology (in Japanese). In: Muranaka T, Ishihama F (eds) Ecology of introduced organisms. Bun-ichi Sogo Shuppan, Tokyo, pp 291–314

    Google Scholar 

  • Koike F, Kato H (2006) Evaluation of species properties used in weed risk assessment and improvement of systems for invasion risk assessment. In: Koike F, Clout MN, Kawamichi M, De Poorter M, Iwatsuki K (eds) Assessment and control of biological invasion risks. Shoukadoh Book Sellers, Kyoto and IUCN, Gland, pp 73–83

    Google Scholar 

  • Komuro T, Koike F (2005) Colonization by woody plants in fragmented habitats of a suburban landscape. Ecol Appl 15:662–673

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lavorel S, Garnier E (2002) Predicting changes in community composition and ecosystem functioning from plant traits: revisiting the Holy Grail. Func Ecol 16:545–556

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mabry C, Ackerly D, Gerhardt F (2000) Landscape and species-level distribution of morphological and life history traits in a temperate woodland flora. J Veg Sci 11:213–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miyawaki A (1986) Vegetation of Japan Kanto (in Japanese, with German table legends). Shibundo, Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • Numata M (1990) The ecological encyclopedia of wild plants in Japan (in Japanese). Zenkoku Noson Kyoiku Kyokai, Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • Numata M, Asano S (1969) Biological flora of Japan (in Japanese). Tsukiji Shokan, Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • Ohtani S, Koike F (2005) Implications of 19th-century landscape patterns for the recovery of Fagus crenata forests. Appl Veg Sci 8:125–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Okuda S (1997) Wild plants of Japan (in Japanese). Shogakukan, Tokyo

  • Pheloung PC, Williams PA, Halloy SR (1999) A weed risk assessment model for use as a biosecurity tool evaluating plant introductions. J Environ Manage 57:239–251

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quétier F, Thébault A, Lavorel S (2007) Plant traits in a state and transition framework as markers of ecosystem response to land-use change. Ecol Monogr 77:33–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raunkiaer C (1934) The life-form of plants and statistical plant geography. Oxford University Press, Oxford

  • Rice WR (1989) Analyzing tables of statistical tests. Evolution 43:223–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shipley B, Shipley B, Vile D, Garnier E (2006) From plant traits to plant communities: a statistical mechanistic approach to biodiversity. Science 314:812–814

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Silvertown J, McConway K, Gowing D, Dodd M, Fay MF, Joseph JA, Dolphin K (2005) Absence of phylogenetic signal in the niche structure of meadow plant communities. Proc R Soc Lond Ser B 273:39–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sone N (1991) Vegetation of Hino City (II) (in Japanese). Hino City, Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • SPSS (2001) Answer Tree version 3.0J user’s guide (in Japanese). SPSS Inc., Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • SPSS (2002) SPSS version 11.5J User’s guide (in Japanese). SPSS Inc., Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • Takenaka (2003) CanopOn2. http://takenaka-akio.cool.ne.jp/etc/canopon2/

  • Terasaki T (1977) Terasaki’s illustrated flora of Japan (in Japanese). Heibonsha Ltd., Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • Tofts R, Silvertown J (2002) Community assembly from the local species pool: an experimental study using congeneric species pairs. J Ecol 90:385–393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weiher E, Keddy P (1999) Ecological assembly rules. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Weiher E, van der Werf A, Thompson K, Roderick M, Garnier E, Eriksson O (1999) Challenging theophrastus: a common core list of plant traits for functional ecology. J Veg Sci 10:609–620

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank anonymous referees for constructive comments. This research was partly supported by the twenty-first Century Center of Excellence program “Risk Management of Bio/Eco-systems” and research-in-aid grant no. 15570015 from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, 79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-ku, Yokohama, 240-8501, Japan

    Ryoko Tanaka & Fumito Koike

Authors
  1. Ryoko Tanaka
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Fumito Koike
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ryoko Tanaka.

Electronic supplementary material

About this article

Cite this article

Tanaka, R., Koike, F. Prediction of species composition of plant communities in a rural landscape based on species traits. Ecol Res 26, 27–36 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11284-010-0749-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11284-010-0749-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation